Is the mobility transition about to collapse?

The German Renewable Energy Federation (BEE) has investigated the effect of the increase in electric vehicles on greenhouse gas emissions: even if the number of electric car registrations increases significantly, there will still be an emissions gap that can only be closed with additional measures.

In view of the reluctance to purchase electric vehicles in Germany, the BEE has examined the effects of different levels of electric vehicle registrations on greenhouse gas emissions. Additional emissions resulting from significantly lower electrification without compensation measures have not yet been calculated in studies. As part of the BEE study, three scenarios were created and their results compared with the reduction targets in the Climate Protection Act.

»The German transport transition is on a crash course with the climate targets. The BEE study clearly shows that if we don't pull out all the stops for climate-friendly mobility now, the reduction targets in the transport sector will be a long way off,« emphasizes BEE President Simone Peter.

Growth in e-mobility urgently needed

E-mobility is the backbone of the transport transition. However, if growth continues to slow down, Germany will miss its electromobility targets. In order to put 15 million electric cars on the road by 2030, new vehicle sales must quadruple in the next three years and increase sixfold by 2030. This growth will be accompanied by a significant increase in demand for electricity. »A rapid expansion of renewable energies and a simultaneous, large-scale expansion of the charging infrastructure will enable this demand to be met with domestic green electricity,« says Peter.

Biofuels and e-fuels close the emissions gap

The BEE transport scenarios show that even a significantly faster electrification and regionalization of transport cannot cover the emissions gap of 15 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030.

»Despite technological successes in the electrification of trucks and other commercial vehicles, there are around two million vehicles in the agricultural, forestry and special transport sectors alone - which include fire engines, police vehicles and construction site vehicles, for example - that will be difficult or impossible to electrify in the foreseeable future. For these vehicles, climate-friendly biofuels and later possibly also e-fuels are an indispensable alternative to fossil diesel and petrol,« says Peter.

»This can replace around 4.5 percent of fossil fuel consumption and leverage local value creation potential in production. This supports the production and business location.«

Expansion of biofuel volumes possible through the use of residues

The BEE scenarios show that biogenic agricultural residues can cover a large part of the additional biofuel requirement. These additional biofuels can close the emissions gap by around four million tons of CO2.

In addition to promoting the aforementioned technology mix, additional measures are needed to close the emissions gap. In addition to new mobility concepts, these include ambitious CO2 pricing and the expansion and CO2 differentiation of the truck toll. In addition, the greenhouse gas quota in transport must be raised in order to compensate for multiple offsetting. In order to promote biofuels, higher blending percentages should be permitted and further measures such as the offsetting of biofuels against CO2 fleet emission values should be made possible.