How’s that going to work?

Is there a future for diesel?

Weyer is sure, “Without a combination of efficient, down-sized combustion engines, 48-volt technology and high-efficiency diesel engines of the latest generation we won’t make the CO2 limit.” The problem he sees is the fact that as a result of recent scandals diesel “was relegated and didn’t deserve it”, says Weyer. And further: “It not only concerns carbon dioxide but also nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter. And when it comes to particulate matter, gasoline-driven cars have the same problem.”

Whereby nitrogen dioxide is currently the only problem being discussed because of the diesel scandals. But that will change, semiconductor producers are sure of this. Beckemeyer: “Whatever, it’s an opportunity for the semiconductor market to introduce new systems for electrification, no matter whether pumps, whether air-conditioning, everything over 1 to 1.5 kW. This is a chance for the semiconductor industry to make new systems more efficient. And that helps overall to drop the CO2 figure in the fleet.”

Adlkofer: “Technically seen, it’s no problem at all to make diesel absolutely clean. You just have to accept paying 500 euros more.” That things did not yet get that far is probably because OEMs were convinced drivers would not want to top up with urea at the gas station, but only when they go in for servicing. “Thus a tank size was defined. There are no reasons, from a semiconductor angle, why that wasn’t introduced. Driving diesel clean with much lower consumption than driving gasoline is quite possible”, says Adlkofer.

But the question remains of whether the reputation of diesel can at all be saved. Thomas Rothhaupt, director for marketing and sales at Inova Semiconductors, is not sure, and Adlkofer adds: “Discussion has become emotional”. In other words, real arguments are overlooked or put aside. Rothhaupt: “Sales figures for diesel vehicles have collapsed, the used vehicle market is virtually bust, I don’t know how that can turn around. Consumers can be merciless.”

And it will probably not help much if OEMs offer diesel with a return warranty, because “nobody knows whether there’ll eventually be a driving ban”, reckons Rothhaupt. But it is not that certain for Rothhaupt whether the diesel is really out of the game. “There are still a number of key levers that we’re not yet considering. For example energy prices. How are electricity and gasoline prices going to develop. Regulatory possibilities can also influence the future of diesel.”

Electric vehicles — they have their problems too

Giese not only criticizes the poor CO2 balance of electric vehicles in many cases. He also poses the question of whether lithium batteries will still be the choice technology in 20 years time. “Then it could be hydrogen or something else quite different”, says Giese. Rothhaupt on the other hand believes the direction is clearly pointing to electric vehicles, founding his assumption on what OEMs are currently announcing.

But announcement is one thing. Weyer for example is convinced that we will not see fast charging, simply because the utilities cannot provide the capacity. “The utilities are already saying they won’t provide more than 7 kilowatts of peak power.” Which could mean that owners of electric vehicles spend a lot of money for fast charging stations at home, but the capacity is not there when they would like to have it. Rothhaupt further: “We already have the problem where the most electric vehicles are on the road.”

And nobody should expect electric driving to be cheaper. On one point they are all agreed; Weyer puts it so: “No-one can believe that the government won’t find a way to make up for the fuel tax it’s losing if we all drive electric.” To which Giese adds: “It’s an enormous source of income for the state; so it’s obvious the fuel tax will end up on electricity. There’s no other way.” But that will not happen now, of course, because as many as possible are first to go electric.

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1. How’s that going to work?
2. Is there a future for diesel?
3. “Did limits interest anyone before?”