Cautious growth forecasts by BDI and ZVEI

Despite similar growth forecasts of 1 to 2 percent, the BDI sees Germany's competitiveness waning, while the ZVEI emphasizes innovation and job growth.

At the opening of the Hanover Trade Fair, the associations BDI (Federation of German Industries) and ZVEI (Association of the Electrical and Digital Industry) announced their assessment of the economic situation.

The BDI expects only slight growth in exports and manufacturing production for the current year. »The economic momentum in our country is currently still decidedly low,« said BDI President Siegfried Russwurm on Monday at the start of the Hanover Fair. The BDI forecasts an increase in exports of just two percent this year. While this is twice as much as in the BDI's forecast at the start of the year, it is lower growth than in 2021 and 2022. Last year, there was an increase of just under three percent.

Manufacturing sector losing global market share

World trade will grow by 2.5 percent this year, faster than exports made in Germany. »Once again, we are losing world market share because world trade is growing faster than our exports – Germany's competitiveness is fading,« Russwurm stressed. According to the BDI, global competitiveness and investment behavior are being hit above all by the current prices for electricity and energy. »The high industrial electricity price urgently needs to return to a competitive European level, otherwise the transformation in industry risks failing,« Russwurm explained.

ZVEI and its member companies are more optimistic about 2023, with price-adjusted real output picking up 6 percentage points in the first two months of the year. The strong first two months prompted the ZVEI to raise its annual forecast for real production from 0 to 1 to 2 percent. Particularly encouraging in this regard is the continued increase in employment, said ZVEI President Dr. Gunther Kegel at the opening press conference for the Hanover Fair. According to the ZVEI, for the first time in a quarter of a century, the industry employs more than 900,000 people in Germany alone (just under 902,000).

The association of the electrical and digital industry places the positive development in the context of the two megatrends electrification and digitization. »For two years, we have observed that our industry is developing more dynamically than the manufacturing sector on average,« emphasizes Dr. Kegel. There is no doubt that this has to do with the transformation to a climate-neutral industrial society.

Reduction of bureaucracy demanded

Both the BDI and the ZVEI are critical of the steady increase in state intervention in economic activity, most recently in the form of the Competition Enforcement Act. »Instead of constantly creating new bureaucratic monstrosities, the German government should concentrate on its actual tasks and ensure competitive framework conditions,« said the ZVEI president, criticizing the approach of politicians to slow down entrepreneurial freedom through dragging-out approval procedures and excessive documentation and reporting requirements. »The over-bureaucratization paralyzes and is to the detriment of competition and innovation,« says the ZVEI president, calling for Germany to finally get serious about its speed.