Prognos Study on Working Landscape 2025 Vocational Training Beats University

vbw Managing Director Bertram Brossardt.
vbw Managing Director Bertram Brossardt.

In the future it will not be academics who will be lacking in the first place, but experts with vocational training, reports the Association of Bavarian Business on the basis of a Prognos study.

According to the study, there will be a shortage of 2.9 million skilled workers on the German labor market in 2025. The demand for skilled workers will fall in most sectors by 2025, for example by 130,000 employees in the retail sector throughout Germany, as well as in public administration. In other sectors, on the other hand, demand is rising, for example in the IT sector, in the manufacture of electronic and optical devices, motor vehicles and their components, in the information and communications sector, in business-related services and in the health and social services sector. The picture is also heterogeneous for individual occupations.

At the same time, the number of people of working age will shrink considerably in the coming years, resulting in a shortage of skilled workers, according to vbw Managing Director Bertram Brossardt.

The shortage is particularly evident among those with vocational qualifications. According to the study, their percentage share of the gap will rise significantly to over 80 percent by 2025. By contrast, academics and people without vocational qualifications account for only seven and eleven percent, respectively, of the gap. In the case of academics, the shortage is mainly due to a lack of skilled workers in the engineering sciences.

The demand for labour in Bavaria will remain almost constant until 2025 at almost 7.5 million people - not least thanks to the strong industry. The ageing of society is also reducing the supply of labour in Bavaria, although the demographic development here is generally more favourable than in Germany. But Bavaria will also have a shortage of 350,000 skilled workers by 2025,' says Brossardt.

If it is not possible to meet the demand for skilled workers, vbw estimates that production and growth potential cannot be fully exploited and that investments at the location will have to be stopped. The vbw has therefore launched the initiative Fachkräftesicherung+ together with the Bavarian state government. The common goal is to recruit around 250,000 additional workers for the Bavarian economy by 2023.