Upswing Begins in 2020 5G Saves the Semiconductor Market

Laut IHS Markit wird der Halbleitermarkt ab kommendem Jahr wieder deutlich wachsen. Doch trotz einem Plus von fast 6 Prozent werde er noch ein deutliches Stück vom Umsatz des Rekordwertes von 2018 bleiben.
According to IHS Markit, the semiconductor market will grow significantly again next year. But despite a plus of almost 6 percent, it will still be a considerable distance away from the record sales of 2018.

According to IHS Markit, the IC market will collapse by 12.8 % this year, but will grow again by 5.9 % in 2020 - thanks to 5G.

The turnover with chips will reach 422.8 billion dollars this year and climb to 448 billion dollars in 2020. According to the analysts at IHS Markit, the growth of the semiconductor market is mainly due to the development of 5G.

"In the history of semiconductors, every time a major technical innovation has created new demand for ICs and triggered new growth after a downturn," says Len Jalinek, Senior Director Semiconductor Manufacturing at IHS Markit | Technology. Such innovations include the Internet and the iPhone. Now 5G is taking on this role. The new communication standard will affect all aspects of society and stimulate new activities in the entire economy, which in turn will drive up demand for semiconductors. 

The more 5G is rolled out, the more Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) can implement new lucrative services. But that is by no means all, as 5G will make it possible to build new business models in all sectors of the economy that will transform the industry worldwide. Workflows and processes would be redefined, the conditions of competition would change. Both the productivity of people and that of machines will increase significantly, and with it the standard of living of the population around the globe. In the USA alone, 5G will make economic performance worth 1.3 to 1.9 trillion dollars possible. This roughly corresponds to what American consumers spent on cars in 2016.  

This year, with a value of 87.7 billion dollars, the majority of semiconductors will go into smartphones. After a decline in sales of smartphones in 2018 and 2019, the market will grow again next year. The demand for semiconductors from this segment will therefore increase by 7 percent, after it is expected to fall by 22 percent in 2019. Demand for chips from the automotive, IoT, data center and industrial sectors will also rise due to 5G.

The current downturn has been triggered primarily by price declines for DRAMs and NAND flash ICs, which started at the end of 2018 due to overproduction. Although the prices of memory chips would rise again in anticipation of the Christmas business, sales of these components would tend to stagnate or even decline again in the first two quarters of 2020. The demand triggered by 5G will not impact the semiconductor market until the second half of 2020, when it will really start to pick up again.